Honey friend

I think that three weeks into this special military operation nosotros can take a few moments to suspension and think about where nosotros are and where nosotros get from here.

My first ascertainment is this: there are, roughly, two master groups of people out there, those who "go it" and those who don't.  In practical terms, this is what this means for me: when I write I am either "preaching to the choir" or I am trying to accomplish folks who are "unreachable" (existence polite here).

For the by three weeks, I have tried to debunk the US PSYOP narrative, aslope folks like Andrei Martyanov at Reminiscences of the Future and Bernhard at Moon of Alabama.  My health does not permit me to sustain such a crazy tempo and I need to enter something of a "temporary rest mode" if I want to avert being forced into rest by my body.

Yet I still get a daily deluge of questions from those who did not "get it" and, bluntly, I am wearied trying to debunk the same stuff over and over and over once more.

So, one last time:

In purely military terms, the pic nosotros see now is simple: the Ukie military as a strategic musical instrument basically died in the first 24 hours.  And then the Russians used a pocket-size forcefulness to bypass and block chief cities.  With some very notable exceptions (Mariupol) they did not try to enter them.  Why?  For 3 crucial reasons:

  1. they did not have the manpower needed (in Mariupol the force correlation is about 1:1 when it should really be 3-5:i in favor of the attacker)
  2. they wanted to kill as few Ukrainians as possible and
  3. they did not want to flatten cities but to have to pay for their reconstruction.

And so where are the rest of the Russian forces and what are they doing?

They are more often than not in their permanent deployment bases and they are fix for a state of war against the U.s.+NATO.

And if you lot are the blazon of believes that "the Russians are running out of manpower" ask yourself why the Black Sea Fleet did non use its elite Naval Infantry, amphibious landing capability or its firepower (I remind you that all the huge damage done to the NATO base of operations in western Ukraine was just a single salvo from one single small vessel (what the Russian call a "pocket-sized missile ship"), probably with ane (land or air based) Iskander to add some specific "punch" where needed.  If the Russian were running out of manpower, would she not use the Black Ocean Armada to the max?  Instead, she is keeping it near Odessa, set up to strike if/when needed, not only at the Ukraine, only at NATO likewise (ditto for the group of Russian ships in the eastern Mediterranean).

This is why Putin refers to this operation as a "special military operation" and not every bit a "state of war" or a "combined arms operation".

Again, you either "get it" or you don't.  It's that uncomplicated, really.

So here is roughly were we are today (yesterday's Readovka map):

And then nosotros are probable to terminate up with something looking like this:

And I don't encounter the point of reporting how nosotros will go from the elevation map to the projection above accident past blow, town by town.

The real question that comes to my heed looking at the projection above is not "how do we get at that place?" just "where practise we go from there once nosotros brand it?".  Correct now this conclusion time is still probably a couple of weeks into the future.

Whatever may exist the case, I accept decided to stop posting updates every day (sometimes several times a day) and, instead, alternate analyses days and open thread days .

So from at present on, expect analyses only every 2d day (unless big events happen).

Next, I don't see any other way to stop the The states+UK+PL to intervene other than by means of a Iskander/Kalibr strike not "merely" upon any target in the Ukraine, merely also strikes on whatever NATO facility is central to the current war preparations by NATO, including locations in Poland , Romania or anywhere else in Europe.

I hope that I am wrong and that the US+UK+PL are not every bit terminally blinded by their hatred of Russian federation as to risk an actual full calibration war in Europe.

Just I have to admit that this promise is small and getting smaller by the twenty-four hours.

It is therefore quite possible, possibly fifty-fifty likely, that in the not too distant future we will run into US and Russian military personnel meeting in combat.  If that happens, not merely volition the risks of a fullscale nuclear war go sharply up, merely it would place me personally in an impossible situation: I would be a guest of the The states ("Green Card" – I simply accept a Swiss Passport) while my country of ethnic origin would exist at war with the USA.

I have therefore taken the following determination: if at that place is a state of war in Europe, I will continue to cover it until 1) Russian and US soldiers meet in battle and/or two) a nuclear strike happens anywhere.  If we accomplish either of these points, then this will non only prove that the Saker blog failed in its main mission (avoid war) but it will too identify me personally in an impossible situation.

If either of the ii events happen, I will and then "freeze" the web log until the war stops.

I don't like to have to take the two decisions above, in fact I very much regret them both, but things are speedily getting out of hand and I need to gear up, both the blog and my personal life.

Question: think the Israeli war against Hezbollah in 2006?

Hezbollah won this war by a humongous margin, and the US+Israel had to surrender to Hezbollah terms.  Not only that, but this state of war made Hezbollah much, much stronger than it was earlier.  Yet it began by a miscalculation which Hassan Nasrallah himself admitted: Hezbollah never expected to Israelis to get then far overboard and basically hammer Lebanon with everything they had for over a month.

I see a parallel here.

No, I do not retrieve that the Russian military operation has run into whatever major issues, past and large what happened in these three weeks must be pretty much what the Russian expected.

In economic terms, there is this big debate now about the Russian gold and foreign currency reserves which I am not capable of commenting upon since I am not an economist.  I will permit much smarter people than I deal with that.

I as well remember that the Russians knew in accelerate what kind of sanctions the W would introduce sooner or later, only I think that the Kremlin was taken past surprise at the speed and scope of the sanctions.  How much of a problem is that?  Well, I generally favor western sanctions against Russia because they force Russia to built a sovereign economy and because they de-couple Russian federation from the institutions controlled by the Empire of Lies.

Here, again, time will tell and much smarter people and then I can offering their insights into this.

However, I think that near people in Russia are stunned past what is a full-scale "detest state of war" on Russian federation which we can call the "Abolish Russia war".  In essence, the West did throw everything it had at Russia short of a overt military aggression and knowing the geniuses in power in the U.s.+UK+PL I would not even put information technology past them to try to fight Russia straight.

So what began as a special military operation to denazify and disarm Banderastan in a preemptive war turned into a global "Cancel Russia" earth war.

How could I arraign folks in Russia for not beingness able to imagine the utter suicidal depravity of the western ruling classes when I, who was built-in in the middle of Europe and lived all my life in the West could non imagine these ruling classes to be so absolutely out of touch with reality?

Again, to exist articulate, Russians were not "naive" to "trust" the West about anything, but they indeed assumed that the ruling course of the USA would non decide to blow up the planet economically and even perhaps militarily considering it would hurt the interests of the US ruling class.  So if everyone is "dumbshit stupid" it is inappreciably the Russians, but rather the folks who rule over the Usa (and, therefore, over the EU as well).

There is as well this Russian expression: "you should count your chicks in the Fall".  Let'south come across past year'due south terminate who was actually dumbshit stupid and who will have prevailed.

At present I call back that it is time for all of us, myself included, to let go of the thought "no, they can't mayhap past THAT delusional" and assume that yes, they are really THAT delusional.

I likewise encounter another parallel: remember how the The states forced Japan into a state of war and then wrapped itself in the mantle of an innocent victim and declared "this mean solar day shall alive in infamy"?

That is exactly what the Usa just pulled off in Europe. And the consequences might be just as immense.

But there is a big difference hither: Japan could non meaningfully strike at the continental United states of america.  Russia very much tin, with both nuclear and conventional weapons.

Here I will only repeat the quote past Putin which I mentioned the day before the Russian special military operation: " if a fight is inevitable yous should strike first ".  In manifestly English language this means that if the Russian come up to the conclusion that the US is engaged in a "Desert Shield" type of functioning (claim to exist only defensive while preparing for months for a fullscale ground invasion) so you can exist certain that Russia will strike European union airports, seaports or any other facility used to prepare an attack on Russian federation.

In fact, if the United states/NATO exercise decide to attack Russian federation, this volition be the final, nuclear, cease for the western civilization as such.  Later yard years of genocidal imperialism, one could be forgiven for thinking that this could be a fitting, but, finish" in the "craven coming abode to roost" kind of karmic justice.

Now information technology is in the hands of the United states ruling elites.

Frankly, at that place is very little Andrei, Bernhard of myself tin do most that.  I sure take said all I have to say on this topic and, again, some see it, others don't – and in that location is aught more than I can do to bear upon this ratio.

The futurity of our planet now depends on whether the traditional western hatred for all things Russian is bigger or smaller than the self-preservation instincts of United states of america ruling grade (the Eurolemmings are hopeless).

Only time will tell.  All we can exercise now is pray and place our trust and lives into God'southward hands.

Okay, these are the things I wanted to communicate to you all, my friends and readers.  I still hope for the all-time, merely I accept to prepare for the worst, and I want to be fully candid with all of yous.

Kind regards

Andrei

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